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Capturing barriers to technology change in computational models for climate policy

CDSI Speaker Series x TISED Talks

Over the past few years, a wave of actors – governments at all levels, electric utilities, companies, and educational institutions – have set targets to reach net zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Meeting these targets will require a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use and simultaneous growth in adoption of new climate technologies. Climate policy models frequently assume that rapid technology transitions are possible, but history points to potential social, political, and economic barriers. This talk will discuss projects at the Climate Action Lab to bridge granular technology data and computational models to explore the limits and potential of technology change for climate policy. The first project uses detailed technology and infrastructure data to model pathways to phase out coal power plants and transition away from natural gas use in buildings. The second project uses early investment data and insights from analogous historical technologies to model the scale-up of carbon dioxide removal technologies. These projects highlight the high costs of delaying technology transitions and the pivotal role of climate and innovation policy over the next decade.

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