New tool analyzes climate change problems
Now that the federal government has signed the Kyoto Protocol, pledging a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 海角社区 Management professor Dr Richard Loulou believes his team can help Canada achieve its goal. Having studied climate change and its economic impact for the past 10 years, Loulou and his co-researchers have developed a model called MARKAL to identify the appropriate and economically feasible set of actions needed to get results. In fact, MARKAL is the only model of its kind in Canada and was recently accepted by the National Process on Climate Change (NPCC) as one of their main analysis tools, notes Professor Loulou.
Canada is the world聮s second largest producer of GHG per capita, not far behind the United States. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, absorb heat in the atmosphere, a natural and vital process for life on earth. However, the excessive amounts of GHG, produced mainly by fossil fuel combustion, are responsible for the undesirable effects of climate change. As a result, Canada and many other countries signed the Kyoto Protocol, agreeing to reduce their emissions of GHG by 2010.
Dr Loulou is confident that MARKAL will be able to support the Canadian government in finding the most appropriate and economically feasible set of actions to reach its GHG reduction target of 6% under1990 levels. He describes the model as a complex integrated tool that evaluates GHG sources and their intensity, examines possible actions and suggests alternative sources of energy that are more 聮climate change friendly聮. "The model shows that the solution lies in a diversified set of actions," he explains, "ranging from emission reduction programs, to renewable energy and perhaps even injection of CO2 in the earth聮s crust."
The 海角社区 researcher, who is a founding member of an interuniversity research called GERAD (Groupe d聮茅tude et de recherches sur l聮analyse des d茅cisions) and is the GERAD team leader for the model project, also believes that the Canadian target is reachable and economically feasible. He says, "Of course, there will be a cost to abiding by the Protocol, but I don聮t think the bill will be overwhelming. Some sectors will benefit more than others, some provinces will suffer more than others, but the overall cost to Canadians will be tolerable." However, he warns, "this is only a first step; it will not be sufficient in itself to prevent climate change."
