Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation?
Statistical analysis rules out natural-warming hypothesis with more than 99% certainty
Published on April 11, 2014 | 海角社区 Research
An analysis of temperature data since 1500 all but rules out the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is just a natural fluctuation in the earth鈥檚 climate, according to a new study by 海角社区 physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.
The study, published online April 6 in the journal Climate Dynamics, represents a new approach to the question of whether global warming in the industrial era has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature.
鈥淭his study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,鈥� Lovejoy says. 鈥淭heir two most convincing arguments 鈥� that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong 鈥� are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.鈥�
Lovejoy鈥檚 study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out 鈥渨ith confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.鈥�
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